http://www.cultofmac.com/reality-check-the-iphones-not-going-to-t-mobile-or-verizon-anytime-soon-the-world-trumps-usa/?

The article argues that Apple won’t bring the iPhone to Verizon, essentially because they benefit too much from the streamlined manufacturing of one single 3G/3GS/4 model for the entire world.  I disagree and wrote a comment stating as much.  Since nobody reads comments, I thought I’d post here too.

I disagree for these reasons:

1: There’s enough market opportunity to make an iPhone on CMDA, even if only sold in one country and only for 2-3 years (until LTE is common).  Every other phone manufacturer does it, and for good reason.  Even if Apple only sold an additive 1M CMDA units per year, that’s $400M-$600M revenue, more than enough to compensate for additional R&D.  1M is a very low estimate in my opinion.

2: Many people love (or are stuck with) Verizon.  Family plans with overlapping contract terms, or just perception.  Many people want an iPhone but can’t due to the Verizon issue.  They walk into a Verizon store, say “I want an iPhone” and are told “not here.”  Some will switch to AT&T, but most will stick with Verizon and buy something that looks pretty much like an iPhone.  Lately, that’s Android.  That’s a sale that could have gone Apple’s way.

3: Apple is very interested in market share when they have a compelling product in a new or open space.  This is new.  Witness the aggressive pricing on the iPad – half what folks expected.  Within a year, I’m sure we’ll see a “free with contract” iPhone of some variety.

4: Apple HATES Google right now.  It’s changed from friends, to friendly competition, to a blood feud.  Nearly all Android sales are lost iPhone sales.  Serious geeks aside, the #1 reason Android users tell me they bought one was their carrier didn’t have the iPhone.  Apple would be willing to lose money to quell this transition.

The biggest challenge is reaching an agreement with Verizon.  Verizon knows all this.  Apple needs Verizon more than Verizon needs Apple.  This is a change from the pre-Android days, when Verizon was losing customers to AT&T due to the iPhone.  They are no longer losing that many, because they have the Android.  The Android is certainly a lesser product, but it’s close enough that average consumers can be sold on it, and be reasonably happy with it.  So Apple won’t get as much money or control as they have with AT&T, but in the end they’ll reach an agreement.

Adobe says this:

Additionally, to the extent new releases of operating systems or other third-party products, platforms or devices, such as the Apple iPhone or iPad, make it more difficult for our products to perform, and our customers are persuaded to use alternative technologies, our business could be harmed.

One day following Apple added this to their iPhone SDK rules:

3.3.1 — Applications may only use Documented APIs in the manner prescribed by Apple and must not use or call any private APIs. Applications must be originally written in Objective-C, C, C++, or JavaScript as executed by the iPhone OS WebKit engine, and only code written in C, C++, and Objective-C may compile and directly link against the Documented APIs (e.g., Applications that link to Documented APIs through an intermediary translation or compatibility layer or tool are prohibited).

(see Daring Fireball’s summary 1 and summary 2 for more info.)

This is all about Adobe adding a “Save as iPhone App” export option to Flash CS5.

I suggest to Adobe: Strengthen your other products which would be beneficial for iPhone use.  Dreamweaver is an extremely popular web creation tool.  How about some iPhone/iPad-optimized web templates?  Perhaps support for HTML5’s offline storage?  Maybe package and save a site out as fully offline-capable web app savable to a user’s home screen?  Yes, you can do that – write standard HTML5/Javascript and fully bypass the App Store with what looks to most people as a native app.

Similarly, Premiere could be strengthened with better Quicktime support such as HTTP Live Streaming – something Apple doesn’t even support yet with Final Cut Pro.

Adobe has lost its battle to put Flash on the iPhone.  Dead, gone, kaput.  This is a good thing.  Adobe should forget about the game it can’t win, and focus on the game it can.

Daring Fireball Linked List: Gawker Publishes Pro-Flash Comments From Anonymous News Publishers

Where Gawker (via John Gruber) posts some arguments, in my opinion partially valid, in favor of Flash.

The world needs a top-notch authoring environment for Javascript-based web apps.  A Flash Professional that isn’t Flash.

One could argue whether Flash Professional is or isn’t “top-notch” but it’s good enough to be widely used.  Adobe puts a lot into it simply because the more folks use it, the more Flash gets shoved onto the web, and the more the web becomes locked into the Flash platform.  Javascript doesn’t have an “owner” in the same way.  No major company that will live or die on the future of Javascript.

Funny enough, Apple has what I always think is on the brink of being that product.  I’m referring to Dashcode.  It’s not close to being a Flash Professional for Javascript – please don’t think I’m making that argument.  But the groundwork has been there for years.  I’ll watch the annual WWDC session on Dashcode’s newest features, and am always wowed by its progress but it’s never quite enough to do anything I need done.  Originally created to author simple Dashboard widgets it can do a whole lot more.  It’s powerful and as easy to use as Flash Professional.  And standards-based (with some obvious Apple focus).  And free.

Any web publisher (or user) thinking Flash is important for simple video, still-image slideshows, or fancy menus is living a decade behind the times.  But Flash is still quite justified, on the development side, for rich web application elements like interactive graphs and complex video interaction.  All these things are quite doable in standards-based Javascript but at a far higher cost of development time.  In Flash, one designer with moderate programming skills can create some really nice stuff.  It may require a proprietary plugin and kill your battery, but I can see where the cost/benefit analysis goes the Flash way.

Here’s how the world can put a serious dent into these areas where Flash is still justified.  First, pick a good Javascript framework – probably jQuery.  Bake it into Webkit.  Seriously.  That ends the need for the user to wait for the framework to download.  Users without it – on non-Webkit browsers – would still retrieve it.  This isn’t just for time savings (which would be minor for most users) – the main reason is it then becomes a widely used “standard” rather than a bolt-on.  Psychologically important if nothing else.  Enhance, significantly, the ability for Javascript to interact with HTML5 video, also with a baked-in framework.  In summary – make Javascript behave like a higher-level language for these purposes.

Then pump up Dashcode or something similar with these things built in, with less of an Apple-specific slant – additional templates for non-Apple devices, or at least a way to create and distribute said templates.  Basically, make it a Flash Professional for this “new” variety of Javascript.  Don’t give it away for free – sell it, promote it, use it, and support it.

Bottom line – quit trying to get the world to stop playing Adobe’s game.  Play Adobe’s game, under non-proprietery rules, and swing the cost/benefit math back towards the public good.

Tell me then, what justification would remain for Flash?

AppleInsider | High prices make Apple reluctant to strike longterm NAND flash deals

and began to think about Apple and their thirst for flash memory.  Every iPhone and iPod with the exception of the iPod Classic uses flash (“NAND”) memory for storage.  The MacBook Air has it as an option.  Even the XServe has an optional flash drive for booting.  Apple has given every indication flash memory is their way forward.

Flash memory isn’t just important to Apple – it’s critical.  If Apple couldn’t get their market-leading supply of the stuff, they’d be dead.  Apple integrates the memory into the iPhone and other units; no external memory slot.  So Apple needs their memory early in the manufacturing chain, and can’t make changes as quickly or easily.  Many other smartphones take a different route.  The NexusOne, for example, has next to no built-in memory but includes a 4GB microSD card.

I think Apple’s approach is much better – the full memory is available to applications, nothing to drop out or lose, and even the low-end 8GB iPhone is plenty large for most users.  But if HTC has a hard time getting 4GB microSD cards they can easily find other sizes from many manufacturers at any point in the manufacturing process.  Apple’s integration costs them that flexibility.

Apple prevents supply constraints by working out long-term deals with flash memory manufacturers.  Apparently they mostly use Samsung, Toshiba, and Hynix (but I’m no expert).  I haven’t seen them working with Sandisk, a major player in the game.  This could be because Sandisk makes the Sansa MP3 player, a direct competitor to the iPod, but it’s apparently only a small part of their overall business.  Again, I’m no expert.

But I was thinking – if Apple wanted to shore up a guaranteed supplier of flash memory, why not just buy Sandisk?  They have a market cap of $7.7B, so Apple could buy a majority stake for $4B.  Apple has the cash.  The other companies mentioned above are all larger and in other businesses.  Sandisk does nothing but Flash, and holds some key patents on the stuff too.  Apple would likely need to sell the Sansa business to someone else to please the FTC, but it’s of no use to them anyway.

To be honest I think it’s a pretty dumb idea.  Apple has stayed out of the manufacturing business for good reason.  They can play companies against each other, and who wouldn’t want Apple’s business these days?  It would be a massive defensive play.  If someone with deep pockets wanted to hurt Apple they could offer a premium to the manufacturers and buy more than they need.  Apple’s market share would drop considerably if they can’t get the parts.

SanDisk is perhaps a bad acquisition for other reasons.  Much of SanDisk’s business is in retail memory cards – not something Apple would care about.  So really this was just me thinking about a potentially critical problem and finding a really bad solution to that problem.

If it did happen, Apple could also control the design of another critical component.  That’s right up Apple’s alley.  Is there a PA Semi of the flash memory world?  I don’t know, but if so that’s more Apple’s style.

I hope (and expect) Apple’s top brass is smart enough to avoid the need to dive back into manufacturing, but if it happens you heard it here first…

I ordered the least-expensive model; 16GB, WiFi-only, $499.  My rationale: I’m interested enough in the iPad to get one, sight-unseen.  I’ll be asked many questions by clients and around town, thus some expense is justified in being educated.  16GB is enough for moderate media storage.  I made do with an 8GB iPhone for two years.  I don’t expect to store much music on the iPad, and that’s the majority on my current 32GB 3GS.

The 3G was a tough call.  I don’t think I’ll need it – at least not much.   Like most people I don’t know how exactly I’ll use the iPad beyond showing it off.  I can see uses, but how many require live internet access anywhere?  With the 16GB model, the 3G option carries a near-25% premium on the hardware.  That’s a lot for a feature I’m not sure how often I’ll need on a device I’m not sure how I’ll use.

And the last factor – the iPad is new, thus a risk.  It may succeed.  I give it better than 50/50 odds it will.  In which case a new model will be out no later than this time next year, and then I’ll certainly buy a higher-end model.  If it’s a failure, I’ve only lost $500 on the deal which isn’t so bad for new technology.

I’ll post my regrets, oh, mid-May…

[Edit: I also bought Apple's case and dock (without keyboard).  The case looks really nice.]

Oh, please read every other WWDC Survival Guide first, as they’re better than mine.

I tend to focus on WWDC as a learning experience. I don’t do all that much chatting. I spend too much time at home being a politician so I prefer blending into the atmosphere while away. Many think of WWDC as a network event first, and learning second. That’s fine, but not my cup of tea. I’m giving Apple $1500 of my own money, and I want to suck out of them all I can.

In no particular order:

• Stay as close as you can to the conference. This is a morning-till-night event and you don’t want to waste time traveling. I have a good friend in the bay area that offers me a bed for MacWorld, but for WWDC I’ll stay at my favorite dumpy hotel two blocks away with free ethernet.
• Eat a good breakfast. By definition that means skip the official free WWDC breakfast. Stale bagels and cream cheese just don’t do it for me. I’m a breakfast person, and if you are too find something better to get you started in the morning. There’s a Denny’s around the corner, Lori’s Diner not far away. Or take a short walk to Whole Foods and get their take-out, bring it to the Moscone, and drink the free orange juice while making everyone jealous. Even Carl’s Jr’s breakfast isn’t that bad for this if you don’t mind the coronary disease.
• Sleep a lot. I’m too old for the after-hour parties and be at full brain strength the next morning. I also have real work to do while at the conference, which I try to get out of the way in the early morning hours (I pretty much stay on east coast time while at the conference).
• Unless you don’t plan to use your laptop at all, bring that power cord. And don’t forget the extension cord piece that came with it, like I did the first year. That extra few feet will come in handy. Every year seem to improve the power strip locations, but best to be prepared. Don’t say “Oh, I’ll just run off battery and plug in later.” No, plug in whenever you can. Oh, and bring the AC cord for your iPhone too; charges faster than USB.
• Install any beta seeds before you go. Yes you’ll probably get a new seed the first day (either on CD or by download). But this way you’ll know you’ll have a good partition for the seed or a reasonable knowledge of what to expect. Plus you’ll be the smartest guy at lunch pointing out the differences in the newest seed.
• Make sure you get the right badge. They tried to give me someone else’s badge when I checked in one year. Slightly amusing story if you’re interested.
• Stay for lunch. This is the only survival guide that will recommend the stale sandwiches. They’re mediocre at best. One thought I’ve had is to buy a sandwich elsewhere in the morning and keep it with me until lunch, but I’ve never felt like lugging it around. I do this for MacWorld (where the food is even worse) but haven’t done so for WWDC yet. I take full advantage of the long lunch break to think about the day’s sessions, answer any work emails/calls, and chat a bit with those in the lunch room. Ok, that’s a little networking I guess, purely incidental. But fun. I once sat across from the Apple engineer responsible for Software Update. I got to vent about many things, and he was sincerely interested in my feedback. I learned a bit too. See, I sucked more knowledge out of Apple while eating stale food. Bonus. Oh, the beverage supplier for lunch is horrible, various off-brand stuff. Cruddy canned iced tea mostly. Very odd.
• Eat the snacks between sessions. Seriously. Excellent cookies, decent pears, occasionally good chocolates, and much better drinks. I’ll often find a Dr. Pepper, mmmm! Why they can’t have the same beverages during lunch as they do during snacks I’ll never know. When it isn’t “snack time” the good sodas get carted away and the Odwalla drink cases locked up. If I think of it, I’ll grab something good during a morning break so I’ll have a better drink for lunch. Oh, if the snack areas are crowded walk down the hallways; they set up other stations there that don’t get as much activity.
• Don’t eat the “pizza.” During one of the evening events they’ll provide something called “Moscone Pizza.” I don’t know what it is, but it’s not pizza.
• Bring a small notepad. I get more ideas during WWDC than any other time of the year, and I’m scribbling endlessly. I prefer a pocket-sized notepad with a little pen, but whatever works. When I get back home I scan the whole thing to PDF using my trusty ScanSnap scanner, so nothing is forgotten.
• Go to the Design Awards, especially if it’s your first year. It’s very inspirational. Every year I go, I walk away really psyched to enter a project to win next year. I’ve never entered, but it’s still fun and motivates me to keep chugging away. Last year I skipped the awards, which I do regret.
• If you’re an independent developer, go to the CocoaHeads meeting/talk at the Stockton Street Apple Store, which is on Wednesday night this year. I’ve always enjoyed them, both during WWDC and MacWorld. It’s a break from the show without being too much of a break. Also check cocoaheads.org to see if there’s a group near you.
• Visit a lab or two, even if you have just a remote excuse. Most sessions are large lectures with a brief Q&A at the end. Labs are very one-on-one. Sometimes just a simple question gets an Apple engineer talking about something great, and once or twice I got in on another developer’s question which was fun. Another great lab experience: I had a very specific question nobody at WWDC could answer. The Apple engineer helping me out asked me to write an email to him, which he forwarded off to some group email within Apple. Within an hour I had a great response back from someone in Cupertino with the exact info I was looking for.
• Session conflicts are inevitable. By Friday, stop caring. You’ll be so exhausted it’s unimportant which session you attend.

And lastly, if you wish to provide feedback to Apple (and you should), I have these requests:

• Ask them why the heck it takes months to release session videos to WWDC attendees. Apple has the infrastructure to encode new TV shows and movies like mad, why so long for their own stuff? I help place local government meeting videos online; we get these done in a day or two using a three-year-old iMac and part-time help. These should go online the same day as the session, so you can catch up if you miss something good due to a conflict. Come on Apple, this is easy.
• Thank them for creating a developer discussion web site. This has been one of my top requests for years. Listservs were fine in the 1990’s and it’s nice to see Apple catching up. Usage is low but that should improve over time.
• Ask them to bring back Feedback Forum sessions. They disappeared last year, and don’t appear to be on the schedule for 2009. These are sessions where Apple listens in a large group setting, and in some cases provide rare insights into the decision-making process. Apple should add one set of sessions at the very end, Friday late afternoon. These aren’t for everyone, but I think they’re a great way to end a conference.

I’m currently on an airplane. Aisle seat, exit row; little to complain about there.

After listening to two Developer Lives podcasts (Brent Simmons and Daniel Jalkut) I decided I needed some music. Philip Glass’s Cassandra’s Dream was a good choice, as this was to be background to reading XCode documentation (NSXMLParser as it turns out).

At some point the music sounded repetitive (even for Philip Glass. I know, I know.). My iPhone’s key lock came up, meaning I’d been listening more than an hour.

The first track to Cassandra’s Dream, at approximately two minutes and twenty seconds, was set to auto-repeat.

It took me more than an hour to realize this.

[Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.]

I’m not sure if Apple will announce anything at the Expo. They might wait until the week after, or like last year announce nearly something every Tuesday all month. I hate that; I have customers waiting to make decisions. People wait when an anticipated announcement is near. I’d rather have them get it done and know no more announcements are coming in the next month or two. (They have good reasons to wait, mostly for inventory management, but I can dream.)

For my own self-interests I’m hoping for an updated Mac Mini that functions better as a small server. The Mini was meant to appeal to PC users looking for a cheap way to switch. I don’t know anyone who has bought a Mini for that purpose. PC switchers are drawn to iMacs and MacBooks. The Mini owners I know bought them as home servers and/or media servers. I have one for that purpose, but it’s growing old and if done right I’d replace it. A few changes would really help this out.

For the Love of God, ditch the laptop hard drive and use a standard 3.5″. Larger and faster storage for the same money, and only six-tenths of an inch additional height. I’ve read rumors they’ll allow swapout of the standard optical drive for another dinky laptop drive. Stupid idea. Go with one real (3.5″) drive and we’ll all be much better off. I suspect this will not happen, but it’s possible.

Everyone knows they’re going with DisplayPort, and I like it. Only downside is lack of easy Composite/S-Video output. This is a real downer for those without HDMI sets or other low-end needs (like public access cable folks who use Mini’s to drive a video signal). This one’s a dream (as NVidia’s chipsets don’t seem to support it), but I’d really like pass-through Composite and S-Video you can get with a dongle like on all non-DisplayPort Macs. External video converters are everywhere, but the quality suffers. Chances of this happening is slim.

Firewire 800. More likely than not they’ll ditch Firewire completely. The end of Firewire is very sad. And very confusing. Add Firewire 800 to the iMac, then pull it out completely from the MacBook. FW800 would make small servers (and MacBooks!) so much better.

eSATA. This one’s dirt cheap on the hardware side. Give us one or two eSATA ports with port multiplier support and I’d be pleased as punch. Apple hasn’t touched eSATA so the likelihood of this debuting on the mini is near zero.

8GB RAM, or more. My current Mini has 1.5GB RAM, half a gig under the limit. Way too low for a large iPhoto library and the small number of other apps I run. RAM is your friend, more-so than processor speed for most uses. Best chances any new Mini will be based on the MacBook, which has a max of 6GB RAM (4GB per Apple, but easy to get to 6GB with serious extra cash). I’ll be ok with that for now, but in 2-3 years I know I’ll want more.

So that’s the Mini I want.

And one more thing… We all know an updated 17″ MacBook Pro is coming. Not sure about Tuesday, but soon. Please take advantage of the extra room inside and add a second hard drive bay. Pretty-please?

I should say I’m writing this prior to the episode’s release but I’m assuming Scotty will do his usual excellent job editing, hopefully even raising my IQ a few points. I also hope the GSM buzz from my end of the line isn’t distracting. The phone in question was in another room and wasn’t audible to me during recording, but I heard it later on. Very frustrating as I’d done everything to keep noise down including buying a pop filter and turning off the HVAC system (I already had decent audio equipment for other purposes). Alysa somehow managed to keep Ariella (our almost-two-year-old) quiet, which was amazing.

My secret hope in participating was to motivate myself to improve the frequency of both my Cocoa coding and blogging. Only time will tell about the latter, but the former has paid off. I have two new (small) iPhone app projects in the works. The more complicated is time-sensitive in nature so I’m working towards releasing it first. I’d actually completed an iPhone app mid-July, but at the last moment decided against releasing it. That’s an interesting story really, but for another day. I do regret my decision to pull back on that app. The app wouldn’t have made the world a better place, but I suspect I’d be a better coder if I’d continued in forward motion.

One comment I remember making during the show is how Apple makes it difficult for newbies to ObjC/Cocoa to get from Point A to Point C. One possibility is that’s intentional, to weed out those not cut out for quality Mac programming. Either way it’s clear that Apple does not apply their highly regarded ease of use talents to the coding process.

Today I ran into two issues. First was an error with iPhone Provisioning Profiles. My app wouldn’t install onto my iPhone (in development/debug mode), with XCode spitting out a 15507 error saying my profile wasn’t on my phone. Which it was (I’d installed other self-written apps previously, and even did so again to confirm all was still happy). I combined several suggestions provided by the googleverse, deleted and re-installed profiles, changed various project options, and suddenly all was happy in the world. Provisioning profiles (part of the signing process) are key to iPhone development, yet the whole process is far removed from anything Mac users would consider sensible. I don’t mean it’s too technical; it’s just wrong.

Second, I wanted to configure XCode’s built-in Source Code Management (Subversion) functionality. I’d used this with other folks’ projects before, but had never configured my own (instead doing ad-hoc version control myself). I searched for Subversion within Developer Tools Library. The top item was a link to an ADC page on configuring Subversion – using XCode 1.5. I’m using 3.1.2. More than a few differences. So I was left to figure things out on my own. Not necessarily a bad thing, but not how I’d hoped to spend my time. Only while writing this post did I find the more recent documentation further down the results list. Why would Apple include such old info within 3.1’s documentation? The old page doesn’t even provide a link to newer info.

Neither of the above are earth-shattering of course. I really am enjoying using XCode, ObjC, and Cocoa. Just two minor yet preventable issues that got in the way of my intent to code. I’ve been coding on Macs off and on since 1986 so I’ve seen plenty of odd stuff (like creating QTVR images in MPW!). This just seems inconsistent with why I use a Mac.

I said I’d blog more. I’ll try to complain less.

I have several suggested improvements for the next generation of hardware and/or software. I have no expectation Apple will either see or pay attention. I’ll also not attempt to turn the Apple TV into something Apple clearly doesn’t want it to be. So no push to support every codec under the sun, no tuner/recorder, no blu-ray player, etc. Might be nice but a waste of time to suggest.

This has been in my drafts folder for a while. It’s way too long as-is, so I’m getting it out there.

Software Changes

Network sharing: Allow local computer users to share (play) media stored on the Apple TV. Basically, make it act like iTunes and iPhoto already does. This should follow standard restrictions on protected content, again just like any computer. This should also allow one Apple TV to share the content of another Apple TV. We’re having so much fun, getting a second may be tempting someday – but only if all content were accessible at all times.

Podcast improvements: I’m having a blast with video podcasts. First, we need better searching. The current Apple TV search is titles only, while an iTunes search is much more thorough. Also, allow subscribing to podcasts directly on the Apple TV. (General theme: do as much as possible through the Apple TV interface, not requiring constant access to the host computer’s iTunes.)

More codec support: I’m not suggesting XviD, WMV, etc. I think the Apple TV should support every codec available on the Mac desktop using QuickTime. This would allow users to play DV files, videos made on digicams, etc, without going through lengthy conversions. Some of these are better kept on the host computer to save space; the intention here is to save conversion time. Some large codecs might require more CPU power, or a hardwired ethernet connection, but most should be fine.

Also, for conversion, some simple batch-convert process for video. We can batch-convert music to MP3/AAC in iTunes, why not video? I know there are third-party solutions to this, but it should really be integrated. NEVER MIND – Advanced->Create Apple TV Version. I haven’t tried this yet; curious if it’s the same as Quicktime’s Export to Apple TV (a very high quality/large file size conversion with no options).

Manually set the poster frame: This is a lame one, but I’d like it. Pause a movie on your favorite frame, then set the poster frame. Also, manually add chapter markers the same way. These should be synced back to the host computer.

Sync while playing: The Apple TV can’t seem to sync with the host computer while playing video. That’s silly.

The ability to play more HD formats, specifically 720p/30 and 1080i/p (24 and 30). Most large (and more smaller) HD TVs are 1080p now. All my home video is shot 1080i/30 (or 1080i/60 if you count fields). It’s a shame I need to scale that down to 960 x 540. There might be a hardware component to this as 1080p video stutters even on somewhat modern computers.

Ditch the stupid .m4v format. I don’t get this one, although it has little to do with the Apple TV itself. .mov is a great container. Why the new format? Was it to say Apple was producing an open format? Try changing some tags in a large .m4v file. Takes forever. A .mov? Barely noticeable. Yes I can use .mov fine, but the quick exports from iMovie, Compressor, etc, all go to .m4v. Plus .mov can have multiple audio tracks, closed-caption tracks, etc.

Support multiple tracks of .mov files. Following from the above, allow the user to choose which audio track to play when watching a movie. When I RIP DVD’s for flights I include the main audio and any commentary tracks, all in the same file. In Quicktime Player I just select which I want to hear. The same should be possible on the Apple TV. (And imagine how many more movies Apple would sell if they included director/actor commentary tracks?)

Multiple users. This is a big one, and an easy one. We have three people in our house – why would we want the same set of favorites, or the same playlists, or the same YouTube account? I’m not suggesting a completely separate library (although some might want this). My wife doesn’t need to see my WWDC videos in her listing, and our daughter doesn’t want to see anything other than Sesame Street and Curious George.

EXIF/IPTC tags while watching photos. While watching photos, we’ll sometimes wonder when the photo was taken. How about a popup of basic data? (And oh, by the way, iPhoto should embed this info into photos instead of storing the data elsewhere. Major multi-year pet peeve here.)

Be a wireless access point (and for some a repeater). My Apple TV is on Ethernet. Why can’t it be another access point for my home LAN? For those using the Apple TV on WiFi, making the Apple TV be a repeater might be nice, although throughput would drop in half so mixed feelings here.

Hardware changes

Apple will inevitably ship a new hardware version of the Apple TV, unless they kill it off of course. I’ll assume the device will have a better CPU and graphics card to support 1080p, etc. So that’s a given.

Gigabit ethernet and 802.11n WiFi. Obvious – move those video files faster.

A desktop (3.5″) hard drive!!! This is my biggest complaint about the first generation Apple TV, and the Mac Mini as well. Why on earth did Apple see it necessary to use a 2.5″ laptop drive in a non-portable device? They saved roughly six-tenths of an inch of space (height) on the device. Hip hip hooray. But they lost a ton of storage space – for a device where storage is key. Many 3.5″ drives are plenty quiet (I’ve had a Tivo for eight years, never heard anyone complain). A quick check at my favorite drive vendor shows 160GB laptop drives roughly the same price as a 500GB desktop drive. Apple is using desktop drives in the Time Capsule, and I’ve never heard anyone complain it’s too large. A perfect example of form obliterating function.

Bluetooth – to support more devices, remotes, etc. See theoretical changes below for more rationale.

External hard drive support – I think this is possible, but unlikely from Apple. They like closed devices. I disagree with their decisions here but accept them as part of the big picture.

Theoretical changes

SDK. Apple has the iPhone SDK, and it’s a huge success. The Apple TV is running OS X too. A real SDK (combined with the better processor and GPU likely coming anyway) could turn the Apple TV into a competitive gaming platform. I don’t play games myself so I don’t care, but it would make the device very popular. Integration with the App Store, etc. Apple would limit SDK functionality (muck like the iPhone), here to prevent the Apple TV from becoming too much like a computer and competing with their own Macs. That’s ok.

Through that SDK they could open the Apple TV to other content providers. (Whoa, is that the third rail I sense?) I don’t see Apple’s content being all things to all people. Access to NetFlix, Hulu, more photo/video sites, etc, is necessary. Apple has conquered music. They haven’t conquered video, and they won’t. Apple has not positioned the Apple TV as a loss-leader to content (like game consoles do). Open it up to the wider world, and Apple will own this market.

Give the remote an accelerometer. Just like the iPhone (and just like the Wii from what I understand). Would be fun for gamers, and probably useful for something. Otherwise the current remote is fine. Simplicity is Apple’s forté, and most do-everything remotes are horrid.

Subscription video service. Ok, this isn’t really a software feature. I think Apple did the right thing by avoiding subscription music. Video is another beast. Netflix’s video subscription is proving popular, at least among the tech crowd. Already multiple hardware boxes support it. If Apple could get the studios on board they could have a great offering.

Ok, I’m done.